According to Nate Silver's and Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium, President Obama has and has maintained a small lead in battleground states that translates into an electoral college win. Right-leaning RealClearPolitics shows the electoral college map closer, but only because it puts states like Pennsylvania in the toss-up column, where their own data shows Obama up by about 5%. So, as Jonathan Chait points out in New York Magazine when Romney says he's winning, it's a bluff.



Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 poll, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.

Writing on The Dailiy Beast Bob Shrum reports:

Obama’s strategists knew the Romney spin was and is as ephemeral as the air it’s spoken on. For Romney may be the last refuge of a candidate who dares not be candid—who has to hide his beliefs and commitments in a fog of political presumption.